What a Difference a Week Makes

5th March 2024 - Back to back wins

Well what a response. I’m surely not alone in wondering where these two wins came from. A 4-2 win against our bogey team Brentford and a well earned 3-1 snatch and grab away at Everton, it’s hard to be negative about that.

I suppose it’s a lot easier to moan than it is to write positive things sometimes, but there’s not a lot of criticism that can be placed on anyone for these last two performances.

Naturally, the conversation has quickly shifted to the “Moyes in” crowd shelling out their “told you so’s” and the more critical of us hammers fans being asked to eat humble pie. It’s a tricky one to be fair - I mean in all honesty Moyes has got it right, twice in seven days. The performance at Goodison Park wasn’t quite on par with the Brentford game, but the approach was smart and we set up well tactically to face the opposition. Our one size fits all approach is often the exact thing I’d criticise but maybe it just so happened to be the perfect tactical approach this time around.

Someone asked me today, Does this change your mind? If these results continue, would you back Moyes being given a new contract?

The truth is, it’s not results that’ll convince me that Moyes is the right man for next season. More so than results are performances and honestly, a change in Moyes’ attitude towards the fans. In recent years, good results haven’t necessarily been our problem, but performances definitely have. Scrappy undeserved wins have become the norm throughout Moyes’ tenure and the issue with that becomes abundantly clear whenever the results dry up. It’s hard to criticise a winning formula, but when it stops working you’d better hope that there are at least some positives in a loss or draw, otherwise things can turn nasty quite quickly.

I think there’s a really important point to be made about these two wins, or at least the Brentford one anyway. That win didn’t result from that same old formula. It came as a result of taking a more positive approach. If Moyes can see this, then maybe we’ve turned a corner. It’s been proven that we can play a positive brand of football and that Bowen hat trick is all the proof we need of what our players are capable of when they’re allowed to actually play a little bit. Don’t get me wrong, our display at Everton was far from perfect, but we turned up and it was an enjoyable, entertaining watch.

But the real question is, “what changed?”

Has David Moyes gone back to the drawing board and chiseled out a new footballing philosophy? Not quite.

For some of us, the answer is glaringly obvious. A Brazilian named Paqueta. He’s back.

Now, in absolute fairness, his impact in the Brentford game was far more obvious than at Everton. Ironically I wrote the majority of this with the Brentford win top of mind and you could probably argue that a lot of players often criticised in recent weeks, namely Tomas Soucek and Kurt Zouma, were the real stand outs in this game. Not forgetting Alphonse Areola of course, with his penalty save and man of the match performance.

But back to Paqueta.

He’s returned to the team and whether he’s fully fit or not, he’s made the world of difference. Now what amount of the overall team performance can be attributed to one player? It’s impossible to say, but the fact we’ve failed to win in all seven premier league games that he’s missed and won 12 of the 20 that he’s played, really does speak volumes.

Is it fair to call us a one man team? Absolutely not. Bowen has 14 premier league goals and there’s no doubting the quality of Kudus, Alvarez, Emerson and others. But when it comes to Paqueta’s influence, it’s hard to argue with some of the stats. We’ve accumulated 42 points in 27 games. Paqueta has played 20 games and we’ve grabbed 39 points from those.

That said, to continue quoting stats would possibly undermine the nuance of the effect he actually has. I mean, statistically, we’d be mad to get rid of Moyes, but context is always key. Numbers may tell part of the story but there’s a lot to be said that isn’t captured by statistics.

Paqueta has that something special. He’s a luxury player for us and wouldn’t look out of place at any elite European club. I think when he first joined, we all had those doubts about whether he could mix it in the premier league. The pace of the game, the physicality. How would he adapt?

Well initially there were concerns, but he’s laid them all to rest. We lost something when Payet left in 2017. Since then we had Felipe Anderson, Haller and Scamacca come and go for big fees and losses in some cases. Our faith in the success of big signings was rightfully challenged, but Paqueta has restored it. For many fans, he’s the player that they’re looking forward to watching each week.

For anyone lucky enough to have seen Joe Cole or Paulo Di Canio at Upton Park and many before them, there was an element of audaciousness and self confidence that’s impossible to fathom for us mere mortals. I mean, I’m sure many of us can play a better ten yard pass than Soucek and every fan has that feeling when watching a ball bounce off Antonio that they probably have a better first touch, but some players are just different. I’d liken it to Darwin Nunez deciding to chip the keeper a couple of weeks ago as he scored the opener for Liverpool against Brentford. He could easily have pragmatically passed it, or stroked it past the keeper, but he chose to chip him. Witnessing that pure ability and the confidence of someone to even try it, let alone succeed, it was a personal reminder of why I love football. Di Canio’s scissor kick, Payet’s free kicks and rabona assist - most recently it’s been Paqueta’s nutmegs and that ridiculous aeiral rabona control, the small moments that make you go “wow”.

Paqueta is our main man, and simply put, he makes us tick. Players like him have an effect not only on the fans, but the players as well. Even when he’s not a stand out performer, his mere presence seems to calm and encourage his teammates.

He wasn’t at his best against Everton, but like it or not, we’ve won both games since his return. In the way that Payet drifting inside made Cresswell look like the best overlapping left back in the league and saw Noble hit the best form of his life, we’re witnessing that same effect with Paqueta. Emerson becomes a different player when he knows he can play one two’s to his hearts content and players make runs knowing that Lucas will likely find them. He frees them up, creates a feeling of safety and trust that seems to resonate throughout the squad. And it’s the little things that go unnoticed by some. The hospital passes received by Kalvin Phillips that led to conceded goals in recent games, are the types that Paqueta manages to control and either find a way out or draw a simple foul from. He has an awareness and confidence in his own ability that allows him to take responsibility in situations that make other players panic.

The point is, his impact is very hard to measure in numbers. It’s easy to discount the little tricks and flicks as unnecessary risks, but some players are good enough to turn these into game changing moments. It’s the equivalent of that special something that makes Declan Rice so valuable, the confidence he instills in those around him. Think of all our fellow fans saying how overrated Rice was and now hailing him as the premier league signing of the season? Some people will base a players value purely on their goals and assists, but there’s a reason scouts still go to games. They’re looking at these behaviours, the nuance of performances and the real impact that a player has.

Well fortunately (or not) for us, in Paqueta’s case, a value has already been determined in that he has an £85m release clause. I’m sure some may bemoan this and insist he’s worth far more, but lets be fair, £85m isn’t a small chunk of change.

Nevertheless, the question becomes, how do you replace a player like Paqueta?

Well, with thorough planning, a solid scouting network and proactive action. Given it’s a well known fact that Lucas wants his city move, we have no excuse for not planning ahead. It does worry me that Moyes may be left in charge of determining how that money is spent. I can just imagine him splashing out on Conor Gallagher to fill the hole, someone who’d do a job, but as squad player for England, is a far cry from Brazil’s starting number 10.

I’ll be the first to admit, I knew nothing of Paqueta when we signed him. I knew nothing of Payet at the time either. But to me that's just proof that top quality players exist outside of the premier league and I daresay the fee we get for Paqueta, combined with the unspent funds we already have available will allow us to bring in 3-4 quality players for next season.

I hope Steidten and his team are already in planning mode and have lined up replacements for our departing players, or at least have a shortlist. But for this plan to be put into effect, it’s important that Steidten is given control and allowed to proceed.

So to finish this incredibly long winded answer regarding Moyes staying on if he maintains this uplifting turnaround - yeah, go on then. I’ll eat my humble pie, but only if Moyes agrees to share some.

For me to accept Moyes staying on next season, he’d need to show he’s willing to accept a change in the clubs approach and concentrate on managing the players that are chosen for him. I mean of course he should have his say, but he needs to realise that maybe, just maybe, there are people better placed to identify and sign players and it’d be in the clubs best interest for him to embrace this approach.

It could actually be the perfect scenario. A winning manager, rewarded with a new contract on the proviso that he accepts he’s not the expert of all things and that he may benefit from utilising some of the actual experts at his disposal. In reality, the likelihood of Moyes agreeing to a scenario in which he doesn’t have unchallenged control really seems quite far fetched right now, so I’m not holding my breath. But the point remains, if he were to have some sort of awakening and agreed to compromise a little, I could well see him continuing in the dugout.

Anyway, hopefully we can all stop worrying about Moyes for a little while now. It’s a different feeling this week. Two wins on the bounce and a winnable European fixture to look forward to in a couple of days time. It really is the perfect antidote to the recent weeks of negativity. Long may it continue.